Meteorological associations of Vibrio vulnificus clinical infections in tropical settings: Correlations with air pressure, wind speed, and temperature

Author summaryV. vulnificus is one of the deadliest waterborne pathogens in the world. It is a bacterium that is transmitted in aquatic settings and causes a serious human infection that can often end in death. Even though V. vulnificus has attracted recent attention from the public health sector, little is known about the environmental forces that contribute to outbreaks. In this study, we use data on V. vulnificus cases from the Florida Department of Health, and data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to identify the meteorological factors that are associated with both cases and fatalities from V. vulnificus. We find that warmer air and water temperatures are associated with severe cases of V. vulnificus. In addition, our results suggest that decreasing wind speed and air pressure were associated with a higher probability of a V. vulnificus case. In the future, these kinds of data may help public health agencies mobilize resources in preventing outbreaks. Further, these results highlight the potential connection between the forces associated with climate change and infectious disease outbreaks. V. vulnificus is one of the deadliest waterborne pathogens, yet little is known of the ecological and environmental forces that drive outbreaks. As a nationally notifiable disease, all cases of V. vulnificus diagnosed in the United States are reported to the state in which they occurred, as well as to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia. Given that the state of Florida is a 'hotspot' for V. vulnificus in the United States, we examined the prevalence and incidence of cases reported to the Florida Department of Health (2008-2020). Using a dataset comprised of 448 cases of disease caused by V. vulnificus infection, we identified meteorological variables that were associated with clinical cases and deaths. Combined with data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), we first utilized correlation analysis to examine the linear relationships between satellite meteorological measurements such as wind speed, air temperature, water temperature, and sea-level pressure. We then measured the correlation of those meteorological variables with coastal cases of V. vulnificus, including the outcome, survival, or death. We also constructed a series of logistic regression models to analyze the relationship between temporal and meteorological variables during months that V. vulnificus cases were reported versus months when V. vulnificus cases were not reported. We report that between 2008 and 2020, V. vulnificus cases generally increased over time, peaking in 2017. As water temperature and air temperature increased, so too did the likelihood that infection with V. vulnificus would lead to patient death. We also found that as mean wind speed and sea-level pressure decreased, the probability that a V. vulnificus case would be reported increased. In summary, we discuss the potential factors that may contribute to the observed correlations and speculate that meteorological variables may increase in their public health relevance in light of rising global temperatures.