Kraemer, Moritz U. G.; Verity Hill; Christopher Ruis; Simon Dellicour; Somali Bajaj; John T. McCrone; Guy Baele; Kris V. Parag; Anya Lindstrom Battle; Bernardo Gutierrez; Ben Jackson; Rachel Colquhoun; Aine O’Toole; Brennan Klein; Alessandro Vespignani; Erik Volz; Nuno R. Faria; David M. Aanensen; Nicholas J. Loman; Louis du Plessis; Simon Cauchemez; Andrew Rambault; Samuel V. Scarpino and Oliver G. Pybus
Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates.