Hochberg, Michael E.
I employ a simple mathematical model of an epidemic process to evaluate how three basic quantities: the reproduction number (R), the number of infectious individuals (I), and total community size (N) affect strategies to control COVID-19. Numerical simulations show that strict suppression measures at the beginning of an epidemic can create low infectious numbers, which thereafter can be managed by mitigation measures over longer periods to flatten the epidemic curve. The stronger the suppression measure, the faster it achieves the low levels of exposed and infectious numbers that are conducive to subsequent management. Our results point to a two-step control strategy that begins with some level of confinement to reduce R below 1, followed by sufficient mitigation measures that manage the epidemic by maintaining R at approximately 1.