Abstact: As far as we can know, both animals and humans have always relied on heuristics to solve adaptive problems. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes that guide information search and allow decisions to be made in a fast and frugal way. Most important, heuristics enable humans to deal with situations of Knightian uncertainty where logical rationality (the maximization of subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating) is mute because the complete set of possible future states of the world and their consequences is unknown. The study of Homo heuristicus is both descriptive and prescriptive. It investigates the repertoire of heuristics that individuals, institutions, and species have at their disposal (their adaptive toolbox) as well as the conditions under which heuristics are successful and thus should be used, as measured by real-world criteria (the ecological rationality of heuristics). Additionally, the study of intuitive design makes it possible to develop heuristic decision aids. The general insight is that under uncertainty (as opposed to risk), simplicity and robustness can improve decisions. Less can be more.
Speaker
Gerd GigerenzerDirector of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy at the University of Potsdam